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The Prediction of Traffic Accident Involvement from Driving Behavior
Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
2006 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The aim of the studies was to predict individual traffic accident involvement by the quantification of driving style in terms of speed changes, using bus drivers as subjects. An accident database was constructed from the archives of the bus company whose drivers were used as subjects. The dependent variable was also discussed regarding whether responsibility for crashes should be included, and what time period to use for optimal prediction. A new theory was constructed about how accidents are caused by driver behavior, more specifically the control movements of the driver, i.e. all actions taken which influence the relative motion of the vehicle in a level plane when v>0. This theory states that all traffic safety related behavior can be measured as celerations (change of speed of the vehicle in any direction of a level plane) and summed. This theoretical total sum is a measure of a person's liability to cause accidents over the same time period within a homogenous traffic environment and a similarly homogenous driving population. Empirically, the theory predicts a positive correlation between mean driver celeration behavior and accident record. The theory was tested in three empirical studies. The first tested equipment and methods, the second studied the question whether driver celeration behavior is stable over time. Celeration behavior turned out to be rather variable between days, and repeated measurements were therefore needed to stabilize the measure. In the third study, a much larger amount of data brought out correlations of sizes sufficient to lend some credibility to the theory. However, the predictive power did not extend beyond two years of time. The reported results would seem to imply that the celeration variable can predict accident involvement (at least for bus drivers), and is practical to use, as it is easily and objectively measured and semi-stable over time.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis , 2006. , p. 44
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Social Sciences, ISSN 1652-9030 ; 10
Keywords [en]
Psychology
Keywords [sv]
Psykologi
National Category
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-6296ISBN: 91-554-6443-2 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-6296DiVA, id: diva2:167593
Public defence
2006-02-21, 1022, Gårdshuset, Trädgårdsg. 20, Uppsala, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2006-01-30 Created: 2006-01-30 Last updated: 2009-03-05Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Driver celeration behavior and accidents - an analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Driver celeration behavior and accidents - an analysis
2008 (English)In: Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science, ISSN 1463-922X, E-ISSN 1464-536X, Vol. 9, p. 383-403Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-93939 (URN)10.1080/14639220701596722 (DOI)
Available from: 2006-01-30 Created: 2006-01-30 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved
2. The relation of acceleration force to traffic accident frequency: A pilot study
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The relation of acceleration force to traffic accident frequency: A pilot study
2000 (English)In: Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, Vol. 3, p. 29-38Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-93940 (URN)
Available from: 2006-01-30 Created: 2006-01-30 Last updated: 2009-03-05Bibliographically approved
3. The stability of driver acceleration behavior, and a replication of its relation to bus accidents
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The stability of driver acceleration behavior, and a replication of its relation to bus accidents
2004 In: Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 36, p. 83-92Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-93941 (URN)
Available from: 2006-01-30 Created: 2006-01-30Bibliographically approved
4. Driver celeration behavior and the prediction of traffic accidents
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Driver celeration behavior and the prediction of traffic accidents
2006 (English)In: International Journal of Occupational Safety and Ergonomics, ISSN 1080-3548, E-ISSN 2376-9130, Vol. 12, no 3, p. 281-296Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A study was undertaken to investigate whether driver celeration (overall mean speed change) behavior can predict traffic accident involvement. Also, to test whether acceleration, deceleration or the combined celeration measure was the better predictor. Bus driver celeration behavior was measured repeatedly in real traffic, driving en route, and correlated with accidents for which the drivers were deemed at least partly responsible. Correlations around. 20 were found in several samples between celeration behavior and culpable accidents for a 2-year period. The results show that although celeration behavior is only semi-stable over time, it predicts with some accuracy individual accident involvement over 2 years. The predictive power of acceleration and deceleration was slightly lower than the combined measure, in accordance with theory. The correlations found were strong enough to warrant the use of celeration behavior as a predictive variable for transportation companies in their safety work.

Keywords
bus driver, traffic accident, crash, acceleration, celeration, driver behavior
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-93942 (URN)000240701400006 ()16984787 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2006-01-30 Created: 2006-01-30 Last updated: 2017-12-14Bibliographically approved

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