Background: Correct prediction of treatment response is a central goal of precision psychiatry. Here, we tested the predictive accuracy of a variety of pre-treatment patient characteristics, including clinical, demographic, molecular genetic, and neuroimaging markers, for treatment response in patients with social anxiety disorder (SAD).

Methods: Forty-seven SAD patients (mean +/- SD age 33.9 +/- 9.4 years, 24 women) were randomized and commenced 9 weeks' Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) combined either with the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) escitalopram (20 mg daily [10 mg first week], SSRI+CBT, n= 24) or placebo (placebo+CBT, n= 23). Treatment responders were defined from the Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale (CGI- I <= 2). Before treatment, patients underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging and the Multi-Source Interference Task taxing cognitive interference. Support vector machines (SVMs) were trained to separate responders from nonresponders based on pre-treatment neural reactivity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC), amygdala, and occipital cortex, as well as molecular genetic, demographic, and clinical data. SVM models were tested using leave-one-subject-out cross-validation.

Results: The best model separated treatment responders (n= 24) from nonresponders based on pre-treatment dACC reactivity (83% accuracy, P= 0.001). Responders had greater pre-treatment dACC reactivity than nonresponders especially in the SSRI+CBT group. No other variable was associated with clinical response or added predictive accuracy to the dACC SVM model.

Limitations: Small sample size, especially for genetic analyses. No replication or validation samples were available.

Conclusions: The findings demonstrate that treatment outcome predictions based on neural cingulate activity, at the individual level, outperform genetic, demographic, and clinical variables for medication-assisted Internet-delivered CBT, supporting the use of neuroimaging in precision psychiatry.