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Bayesian Change-point Modelling of the Effects of 3-points-for-a-win Rule in Football
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2910-8432
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2019 (English)In: Journal of Applied Statistics, ISSN 0266-4763, E-ISSN 1360-0532Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

We examine the effects of the 3-points-for-a-win (3pfaw) rule in the football world. Data that form the basis of our analyses come from seven leagues around the world (Albania, Brazil, England, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Scotland) and consist of mean goals and proportions of decided matches over a period of about six years before- and about seven years after the introduction of the rule in the respective leagues. Bayesian change-point analyses and Shiryaev-Roberts tests show that the rule had no effects on the mean goals but, indeed, had increasing effects on the proportions of decided matches in most of the leagues studied. This, in turn, implies that while the rule has given teams the incentive to aim at winning matches, such aim was not achieved by scoring excess goals. Instead, it was achieved by scoring enough goals in order to win and, at the same time, defending enough in order not to lose. Our results are in accordance with recent findings on comparing the values of attack and defense - that, in top-level football, not conceding a goal is more valuable than scoring a single goal.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019.
Keywords [en]
Bayesian inference, Bayes factor, Change-point models, Excitement index, Football, Shiryaev-Roberts change point detection scheme, Three-points-for-a-win rule
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-169200DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2019.1635572ISI: 000474122900001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-169200DiVA, id: diva2:1334362
Available from: 2019-07-02 Created: 2019-07-02 Last updated: 2019-07-22

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Ghilagaber, GebrenegusMunezero, Parfait
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