Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Background: In an inefficient market, the intrinsic value of an asset may not be equal to
its true market value. Therefore, before engaging in a stock transaction, both the seller
and the buyer would want to know the intrinsic value of the stock as neither would want
to lose money during the process. An effective valuation model enabling investors to
efficiently determine firm values is therefore considered to be a crucial factor.
Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the free cash flow to equity (FCFE)
approach and the dividend discount model (DDM) on 30 Swedish companies. This to
conclude if they are considered to be accurate valuation models and to determine if one
of the methods gives a more accurate estimation of the companies’ share prices than the
other. Additionally, the report will examine if one model is preferred for a specific sector
and if a payout ratio exists where the DDM generates a particularly realistic valuation.
Method: A database will be produced to estimate share prices for each company using
both the FCFE approach and the DDM over five consecutive years. The accuracy of the
models will be evaluated by dividing the projected share prices with their corresponding
actual stock prices to calculate the percentage deviations. The smaller the percentage
deviation, the more accurate is the estimated share price considered to be.
Conclusion: It is evident from the findings of this thesis that the FCFE approach and the
DDM produce accurate valuations for Swedish companies. It is difficult to determine that
one is preferred over the other altogether, instead the FCFE approach is preferred in some
cases and the DDM in others. This depends on the companies’ actual stock prices, which
industry the companies operate in and the amount the companies are assumed to pay out
as dividends.
2019. , p. 88
Stock Valuation, Discounted Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow to Equity, Dividend Discount Model, Accuracy of Valuation Models