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A nexus assessment of Energy and Water in Rwanda
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Industrial Ecology.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Industrial Ecology.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
En integrerad systemanalys av energi och vatten i Rwanda (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Rwanda is a small country in Central Africa with plans on 100% electrification and 60% renewable energy in the electricity mix by 2030. Today 31% of the country’s population has access to electricity and hydropower yields approximately half (44%) of the country’s electricity generation. The country’s plans include an aggressive development plan, which aims to foster multi-sectoral development and elevate the country from poverty. Water is a critical resource, heavily exploited by both the power and agriculture sector. This thesis intends to investigate the role of hydropower in Rwanda’s electrification plans, identify critical points in the use of water and explore the possible effects of climate change. Two energy modelling tools were used, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. Water balance equations were developed manually based water demand data from the Rwandan Ministry of Natural Resources and three climate scenarios based on data from KNMI Climate Explorer. The results show that hydropower’s share is expected to vary between 7 - 47% in the electricity mix by 2030, with its penetration highly depending on both electricity demand and climate scenario selected. It was also concluded that water availability will not be able to sufficiently cover the expected water demand in the country after 2026. Hence, Rwanda’s aggressive hydropower expansion plans might need to be reconsidered.

Abstract [sv]

Rwanda är ett litet land i centrala Afrika med mål att elektrifiera hela landet samt att ha en elmix med 60% förnyelsebart år 2030. Idag har 31% tillgång till el och vattenkraft står för 44% av elmixen. Vatten är emellertid en begränsad resurs med ökande behov från inte minst jordbruket. Denna rapport utreder vattenkraftens roll i Rwandas elektrifieringsplaner och klimatförändringars påverkan på vattentillgång.

För att modellera elmixen har OnSSET och OSeMOSYS som är två modeller utvecklade på KTH dESA använts. Beräkningar på vattentillgänglighet har gjorts med hjälp av vattentillgång utifrån flera klimatscenarion samt prognoser av framtida vattenbehov från Ministry of Natural Resources i Rwanda.

De framtagna resultaten visade att vattenkraften år 2030 bidrar med 7 - 47% till elmixen beroende på klimatscenario och elbehov. Denna variation beror dock framförallt på skillnaderna i de årliga variationerna i nederbördsmönster mellan olika klimatscenarion snarare än minskad total vattentillgång pga klimatförändringar.

Oberoende av klimatförändringarna kommer vattentillgången inte kunna täcka det uppskattade vattenbehovet och de framtida vattenplanerna kan därför behöva omprövas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 83 p.
Series
TRITA-IM-KAND 2017:21
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-210750OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-210750DiVA: diva2:1119648
External cooperation
University of Technology and Arts of Byumba
Available from: 2017-07-04 Created: 2017-07-04 Last updated: 2017-07-04Bibliographically approved

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