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Risk Analysis of Intentional Electromagnetic Interference on Critical Infrastructures
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
2017 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Our modern society depends on the functioning and interplay of a wealth of infrastructures. Practicallyall of these infrastructures are in some form or another, dependent on electrical and electronicsystems. The majority of modern infrastructure is dependent on electric power and controlled bySupervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. Electronic systems are sensitive toelectromagnetic interference and at the same time, sources of electromagnetic interference are becomingmore readily available on the market.This means that certain important electronic infrastructure could be exposed to the risk of intentionalelectromagnetic interference (IEMI). Therefore, and also due to the complex nature of electronicinfrastructure, a comprehensive risk assessment methodology is needed. A game-theoretic approachfor quantitative risk assessment of the recently recognised threat of intentional electromagneticinterference on critical infrastructures is presented. The thesis bridges the gap between thefields of IEMI and risk analysis and lays a foundation for further development within this multidisciplinaryfield.In paper I, the probability distribution function of the electric field strength from a continuouswave source is estimated in complex building structures. Probability distribution functions arecombined for small and large scale fluctuations.In paper II, a structured risk assessment framework is presented for identifying and quantifyingthe risk of IEMI on a distribution network infrastructure. The dimensions and components of riskare dissected and a suitable definition of risk is formulated.In paper III, an operational model is formulated to optimise the operation of a wireless networkunder the course of a coordinated jamming attack. The model captures the time dimension andillustrates how the network operator must dynamically control the network so as to reduce the totalnetwork operational cost.

Abstract [sv]

Det moderna samhället är starkt beroende av funktionaliteten och samspelet mellan en mängd olikainfrastrukturer. Alla dessa infrastrukturer beror på ett eller annat sätt på elektriska och elektroniskasystem. Majoriteten av modern infrastruktur är beroende av elkraft och styrs av så kallade SupervisoryControl and Data Aquisition (SCADA) system. Elektronik är känslig mot elektromagnetiskastörningar och samtidigt har elektromagnetiska störsändare blivit alltmer lättillgängligt för allmänhetenpå marknaden.Således kan viss kritisk teknisk infrastruktur vara utsatt för risk av avsiktliga elektromagnetiskastörningar. Denna sårbarhet och komplexiteten hos elektronisk infrastruktur kräver en utförlig metodför riskanalys. Här presenteras en spelteoretisk metod för kvantitativ riskanalys av det relativtnyligen identifierade hotet avsiktlig elektromagnetisk störning av samhällsviktig teknisk infrastruktur.Avhandlingen knyter ihop ämnesområdena IEMI och riskanalys och lägger en grund för vidareutveckling inom samverkansområdet.I papper I beräknas sannolikhetsfördelningen hos elektriska fältstyrkan från en kontinuerlig vågkällai komplexa byggnadsstrukturer. Sannolikhetsfördelningar kombineras för små och storskaligafluktuationer.I papper II presenteras ett strukturerat ramverk för riskanalys som identifierar och kvantifierarrisken för IEMI hos en infrastruktur i form av ett distributionsnätverk. Dimensionerna och komponenternaav risk identifieras och riskbegreppet definieras specifikt för IEMI.I papper III formuleras en “operational model” som optimerar underhållningen av ett trådlöstnätverk under ett koordinerat jamming attack. Modellen tar hänsyn till tidsdimensionen och illustrerarhur nätverksoperatorn måste dynamiskt styra om nätverket så att totala underhållningskostnaden minimeras.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. , 23 p.
Series
Theses in Risk and Safety from the Division of Philosophy at the Royal Institute of Technology, ISSN 1654-627X
National Category
Philosophy
Research subject
Philosophy; Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203788ISBN: 978-91-7729-321-7 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-203788DiVA: diva2:1082549
Presentation
2017-04-07, D3, Lindstedtvägen 5, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Note

QC 20170317

Available from: 2017-03-17 Created: 2017-03-16 Last updated: 2017-03-23Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Probability Distribution Function of the Electric Field Strength From a CW IEMI Source
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probability Distribution Function of the Electric Field Strength From a CW IEMI Source
2014 (English)In: IEEE transactions on electromagnetic compatibility (Print), ISSN 0018-9375, Vol. 56, no 6, 1550-1558 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A statistical method for predicting the vulnerability of a target, i.e., critical equipment, located inside a building subject to a radiated Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) source outside a building, has been devised. Combining probability density functions of small-and large-scale fluctuations of the electric field strength results in a Suzuki distributed electric field strength impinging at the equipment. Specifying the susceptibility level or the critical electric field strength of the target, the vulnerability of a target is evaluated as a function of the distance between source and target, taking into account losses from in and outside the building. Vulnerability isocontours defined as lines of constant probability of exceeding the susceptibility level are presented for a generic, continuous wave power source in a scenario emulating a dense urban microcell propagation environment. A comparison of the vulnerabilities predicted based on the Suzuki and the Log-normal distributions are also been provided for the same scenario. The proposed method provides estimates of critical distances of radiated IEMI attacks and may have use when deciding on the perimeter defense of a facility.

Keyword
Electric field strength, outdoor-to-indoor, probability distribution function (pdf), urban environment, vulnerability
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-159383 (URN)10.1109/TEMC.2014.2328874 (DOI)000346716800036 ()2-s2.0-84919928078 (Scopus ID)
Funder
The Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS)
Note

QC 20150203

Available from: 2015-02-03 Created: 2015-01-29 Last updated: 2017-03-16Bibliographically approved
2. A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on CriticalInfrastructures
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on CriticalInfrastructures
(English)Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Keyword
Intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI); critical infrastructures; risk analysis; operational models; water distribution network
National Category
Philosophy Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203782 (URN)
Note

QC 20170317

Available from: 2017-03-16 Created: 2017-03-16 Last updated: 2017-03-20Bibliographically approved
3. A Dynamic Operational Model for Improving the Resilience of Wireless Networks Against Jamming
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Dynamic Operational Model for Improving the Resilience of Wireless Networks Against Jamming
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
Keyword
Jamming attacks; Resilience; Vulnerability; Critical infrastructure; Wireless networks; Intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI)
National Category
Philosophy Telecommunications
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203784 (URN)
Note

QC 20170317

Available from: 2017-03-16 Created: 2017-03-16 Last updated: 2017-03-20Bibliographically approved

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