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The efficiency of Hyndman-Ullah methods in case of populations with abnormal short-term increases of mortality rates due to wars and pandemics.
Mälardalens universitet, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation.
2022 (Engelska)Självständigt arbete på avancerad nivå (masterexamen), 20 poäng / 30 hpStudentuppsats (Examensarbete)
Abstract [en]

This report is written with the goal of analyzing the efficiency of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) and weighted Hyndman-Ullah (wHU) methods when working with the populations that suffered higher mortalities due to the wars and pandemics. Accordingly, the HU and wHU methods are applied to the training sets containing outlying years. The historical data are obtained from Human Mortality Database, while forecasts and analysis are performed using R-package demography. Two countries, Sweden and France, are chosen to participate in the in-sample mortality forecast. By comparing forecasted mortalities for those countries after First World War (WWI), Spanish flu and Second World War (WWII), the forecast accuracy of both HU and wHU methods is evaluated. The wHU method proved better when working with the Swedish training set with moderate jumps in mortality. For the French data set consisting of large mortality jumps, both methods recorded significant error measures, which were decreased eventually by extending the training set. After that, the selection of four countries (Sweden, Denmark, Spain and Japan) provides the out-of-sample mortality forecast after the pandemics Covid-19 for the horizon of 30 years.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2022. , s. 60
Nationell ämneskategori
Övrig annan teknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-58567OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-58567DiVA, id: diva2:1664727
Ämne / kurs
Matematik/tillämpad matematik
Presentation
2022-06-01, Västerås, 11:00 (Engelska)
Handledare
Examinatorer
Tillgänglig från: 2022-06-13 Skapad: 2022-06-04 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-13Bibliografiskt granskad

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The efficiency of Hyndman-Ullah methods in case of populations with abnormal short-term increases of mortality rates due to wars and pandemics.(1140 kB)331 nedladdningar
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Raspudić, Teo
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Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation
Övrig annan teknik

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Totalt: 331 nedladdningar
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