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Long term effect of climate change on rainfall in northwest Iraq
Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för samhällsbyggnad och naturresurser, Geoteknologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-6790-2653
School of Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University.
Sulaimani University, Sulaimani, Kurdistan Region.
Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för samhällsbyggnad och naturresurser, Geoteknologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-1365-8552
2014 (engelsk)Inngår i: Central European Journal of Engineering, ISSN 1896-1541, E-ISSN 2081-9927, Vol. 4, nr 3, s. 250-263Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Middle East, like North Africa, is considered as arid to semi-arid region. Water shortages in this region, represents an extremely important factor in stability of the region and an integral element in its economic development and prosperity. Iraq was an exception due to presence of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. After the 1970s the situation began to deteriorate due to continuous decrease in discharges of these rivers, are expected to dry by 2040 with the current climate change. In the present paper, long rainfall trends up to the year 2099 were studied in Sinjar area, northwest of Iraq, to give an idea about its future prospects. Two emission scenarios, used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A2 and B2), were employed to study the long term rainfall trends in northwestern Iraq. All seasons consistently project a drop in daily rainfall for all future periods with the summer season is expected to have more reduction compared to other seasons. Generally the average rainfall trend shows a continuous decrease. The overall average annual rainfall is slightly above 210 mm. In view of these results, prudent water management strategies have to be adopted to overcome or mitigate consequences of future severe water crisis.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2014. Vol. 4, nr 3, s. 250-263
HSV kategori
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URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-15953DOI: 10.2478/s13531-013-0151-4Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84921498221Lokal ID: f88206ad-9520-4c58-8ca7-bdd940876a03OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-15953DiVA, id: diva2:988929
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Validerad; 2014; 20140112 (nadhir)Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-09-29 Laget: 2016-09-29 Sist oppdatert: 2018-07-10bibliografisk kontrollert

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