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Hierarchical multi-fault prognostics for complex systems
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5395-5482
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7796-5201
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3272-4145
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The field of predictive maintenance for complex machinery with multiple possible faults is an important but largely unexplored area. In general, one assumes, often implicitly, the existence of monitoring data specific enough to capture every possible fault independently from all the others.

In this paper, we focus on the problem of predicting time-to-failure, or remaining useful life, in situations where the above assumption does not hold. Specifically, what happens when the data is not good enough to uniquely predict every fault, and, more importantly, what happens when different faults share the same symptoms on the recorded data.

We demonstrate that prognostics approaches learning independent models for each fault are inadequate. In particular, in the presence of faults that produce similar failure patterns, they produce false alarms disproportionately often or miss the majority of failures. 

We propose the HMP framework (Hierarchical Multi-fault Prognosis) to solve this problem by extracting a hierarchy of faults based on the similarity of the data they produce. At each node of the hierarchy, we train a regression model to predict the time-to-failure for any of the faults contained in this node. The intuition is that while it might be impossible to predict individual time-to-failure in the presence of similar faults, a model trained on aggregated data can still provide useful information. We demonstrate through experiments the validity of our approach.

Keywords [en]
Predictive Maintenance, Complex System, Multi-fault Prognosis
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-48118OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-48118DiVA, id: diva2:1697957
Funder
Knowledge FoundationSwedish Research Council
Note

As manuscript in thesis

Available from: 2022-09-22 Created: 2022-09-22 Last updated: 2025-10-01Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Hierarchical Methods for Self-Monitoring Systems: Theory and Application
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hierarchical Methods for Self-Monitoring Systems: Theory and Application
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Self-monitoring solutions first appeared to avoid catastrophic breakdowns in safety-critical mechanisms. The design behind these solutions relied heavily on the physical knowledge of the mechanism and its fault. They usually involved installing specialized sensors to monitor the state of the mechanism and statistical modeling of the recorded data. Mainly, these solutions focused on specific components of a machine and rarely considered more than one type of fault.

In our work, on the other hand, we focus on self-monitoring of complex machines, systems composed of multiple components performing heterogeneous tasks and interacting with each other: systems with many possible faults. Today, the data available to monitor these machines is vast but usually lacks the design and specificity to monitor each possible fault in the system accurately. Some faults will show distinctive symptoms in the data; some faults will not; more interestingly, there will be groups of faults with common symptoms in the recorded data.

The thesis in this manuscript is that we can exploit the similarities between faults to train machine learning models that can significantly improve the performance of self-monitoring solutions for complex systems that overlook these similarities. We choose to encode these similarity relationships into hierarchies of faults, which we use to train hierarchical supervised models. We use both real-life problems and standard benchmarks to prove the adequacy of our approach on tasks like fault diagnosis and fault prediction.

We also demonstrate that models trained on different hierarchies result in significantly different performances. We analyze what makes a good hierarchy and what are the best practices to develop methods to extract hierarchies of classes from the data. We advance the state-of-the-art by defining the concept of heterogeneity of decision boundaries and studying how it affects the performance of different class decompositions. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Halmstad: Halmstad University Press, 2022. p. 66
Series
Halmstad University Dissertations ; 93
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-48138 (URN)978-91-88749-98-7 (ISBN)978-91-88749-97-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2022-10-14, Wigforssalen, Hus J (Visionen), Kristian IV:s väg 3, Halmstad, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-09-23 Created: 2022-09-23 Last updated: 2025-10-01Bibliographically approved

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